If Democrats flip this seat, they can flip others like it and easily capture the House of Representatives.ĭemocrat Dan McCready has run an impressive, well-funded campaign and solidified his position as a moderate that fits the District. US House (9th District): This race is a true toss-up that is being watched all over the country. This cannot be ignored in a mid-term election and colors the analysis. Republicans, ever the traditionalists, will come out in greater numbers on Tuesday, but what we have seen so far is Democrats and Independents surging in Cumberland County early voting. Unaffiliated voters, an ever-increasing demographic, have voted at 76.5% of their 2014 numbers.Republicans are lagging behind at only 54.3% of their 2014 numbers.Thus far in 2018, Democrats have voted at 63.2% of their total 2014 vote, right on pace with the overall turnout.

The 2018 early vote is 63.3% of the total vote in 2014. So far in 2018, 48,494 people have voted early. Here’s the total vote in Cumberland County from the 2014 Mid-Term Election, by party registration:ħ6,606 people voted in Cumberland County in 2014. This is the early vote in Cumberland County by party registration, taken from : To make a good forecast, we need to start on solid footing, so let’s look at the raw data. In the face of all this partisanship, we a have a growing “unaffiliated” group of North Carolina voters, driven in part by young people who are fed up with traditional parties. It’s all about getting your voters to the polls. In short, there won’t be many votes stolen from across the aisle. Partisan dynamics will have a greater impact than they would in a traditional mid-term election where state and local issues tend to dominate. Nationally, turn-out is high across the board. Republicans are rallying to the promise of “Keeping America Great” by keeping themselves in power. Democrats are ready to send Trump a message. Right now, both Republicans and Democrats are entrenched in their positions. Trump’s Gallup approval rating has never been above 50% and has taken a dive as of late: This election will be a cross-country case study of the effects of this growing divide.Ī referendum of the President has been developing since he took office in 2016 while losing the popular vote by 2,800,000 votes (the largest deficit in the history of the Presidency). One theme I hit on often at Cross Creek Divide is the growing divisiveness and partisanship in our present moment of American politics. I took a chance and tried something unique with this site, and this post is written in that spirit. Nevertheless, I started this blog because I saw a void of good political analysis in Fayetteville press and radio where the same talking heads were and continue to be quoted in every story. In short, I may end up looking like a fool Wednesday morning. Unlike this year’s primary races that were relatively easy to predict ( I was 9 for 10), several of the races up for grabs Tuesday are literal dead-heats. Below are my predictions for competitive Cumberland County races in the 2018 midterm election.

Crosstab midterm predictor